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Litecoin có thể lên tới 250 đô la hay sẽ sụp đổ như năm 2015 khi cận kề “halvening”

  • Thread starter azcoin
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A

azcoin

New member
#1
Giống như Bitcoin (BTC) có cái gọi là “halvening”, Litecoin (LTC) cũng vậy. Mặc dù LTC sử dụng thuật toán băm khối khác, thời gian khối nhanh hơn và chi phí rẻ hơn, Litecoin cũng sẽ giảm các phần thưởng trong 4 năm.
litecoin-halving.png
Satoshi Nakamoto đã xây dựng cơ chế này thành đứa con tinh thần của mình bởi sự chán ghét của nhà lập trình đối với các tổ chức tài chính tập trung, nhiều trong số đó có khả năng in tiền theo ý muốn và không hỏi ý kiến người dân , đó là một cách móc túi gián tiếp và vĩ đại nhất mà loài người từng nghĩ ra.
Để điều hành một nền kinh tế, tăng thuế hoặc tăng bất kì chi phí nào cũng sẽ bị vấp phải sự phản đối nặng nề từ công chúng, vị lãnh đạo đó có thể sẽ bị thất cử trong mùa bầu cử lần sau. In tiền là hình thức rút tiền từ hầu bao người dân một cách dễ dàng và an toàn nhất, người dân không thể cảm nhận được sự biến đổi của giá trị đồng tiền mình đang cầm trong tay, nó quả nhỏ. Cũng tương tự như việc chúng ta không thể phân biệt được nhiệt độ 30 và 31 độ C khác nhau nhiều như thế nào, trừ phi dùng nhiệt kế.
Lạm phát ảnh hưởng như thế nào tới nền kinh tế
Để dễ hiểu, Tạp Chí Bitcoin sẽ dùng biểu đồ so sánh về lạm phát của 2 nền kinh tế là Venezuela, nơi từng có nền kinh tế cực kỳ vững mạnh với trữ lượng dầu khí lớn nhất thế giới, hiện đang đối mặt với khủng hoảng và thiếu lương thực trầm trọng và Việt Nam, đất nước yêu dấu của chúng ta, từng là quốc gia nghèo nhất thế giới bởi sự tàn phá của chiến tranh.
lam-phat-tai-venezuela-1.png

Kinh tế Venezuela từ 1980-1986 , nguồn: Wikipedia.
Số liệu tăng trưởng “GDP per capita” và lạm phát (inflation rate) của Venezuela từ 1980 tới 1986, đây là thời điểm Venezuela là quốc gia giàu có nhất Mỹ La Tinh, tương đương với Nhật Bản. Nền kinh tế Venezuela lúc này gấp 18 lần Việt Nam với lạm phát tương đương.
lam-phat-tai-vietnam-1.png

Kinh tế Việt Nam từ 1980-1986 (trước Đổi mới) , nguồn: Wikipedia
Nếu tính theo GDP per capita thì nền kinh tế năm 1980 của họ tương đương với năm 2018 của Việt Nam, nghĩa là họ đi trước mình 38 năm, gần 2 thế hệ.
lam-phat-tai-venezuela.png

Kinh tế Venezuela từ 2010-2018 , nguồn: Wikipedia.
venezuela.png

Venezuela thừa nhập kinh tế sụp đổ. Nguồn: dantri.com
Tuy nhiên, chỉ 10 năm trở lại đây, với sai lầm của chính sách quản trị kinh tế theo mô hình xã hội chủ nghĩa của Hugo Chávez, tỷ lệ lạm phát lên tới 13.864,6% trong năm 2018, dự kiến sẽ gấp đôi số này trong năm 2019, nợ công kỷ lục tới 162%/GDP thì nền kinh tế nước này đã quay đúng lại cột mốc 1980, stability sau 39 năm.
lam-phat-tai-vietnam-2.png

Kinh tế Việt Nam từ 2010-2017 (trên bảng chưa cập nhật số liệu 2018, nhưng theo công bố là $7.510 GDP per capita) , nguồn: Wikipedia
Với đường lối quản trị kinh tế đúng đắn, phát triển kinh tế tư nhân, đi theo học thuyết của nền kinh tế thị trường, tỷ lệ lạm phát của Việt Nam rất tốt (màu xanh) trong những năm gần đây, nợ công chấp nhận được (màu xanh) thì Việt Nam trong năm 2019 đã vượt qua nền kinh tế Venezuela. Dự tính, nếu tiếp tục đà này trong 10 năm tới, thì nền kinh tế của Việt Nam và Venezuela sẽ chính thức đảo chiều, họ sẽ tụt lại ít nhất 20-30 năm so với Việt Nam chúng ta.
Lạm phát của hầu hết các tài sản có thể khó dự đoán. Chỉ cần nhìn vào đồng tiền Bolivar của Venezuela là chúng ta có thể nhận ra, móc túi người dân không thương tiếc. Nhưng với Bitcoin, chúng ta có thể xác định lạm phát của nó sẽ là bao nhiêu trong hàng chục năm. Đối với tất cả những gì chúng ta biết – và như một số người hoài nghi suy đoán – một cái gì đó như Đô la Mỹ có thể phải chịu siêu lạm phát vào thập kỷ tới, do sự thiếu trách nhiệm tài chính và quản lý sai.
Tiềm năng của giảm phát trong Litecoin
Do kinh tế cung cầu đơn giản, nhiều người chắc chắn rằng khi Litecoin giảm một nửa phần thưởng trong tháng 8 này, LTC có thể tăng mạnh. Chúng ta đã nhận được hương vị của thị trường tiền điện tử , Litecoin đã tăng mạnh tới 286% hàng năm (theo Messari), lật đổ hầu hết các altcoin và thậm chí cả Bitcoin. Trong những ngày qua, khi thị trường lên xuống khó lường, thì đồng coin ổn định nhất vẫn là Litecoin.
Xem hình ảnh trên Twitter
D8grYj7UEAEQS6-?format=jpg&name=small

U1jqda4r_normal.jpg

Financial Survivalism@Sawcruhteez

$LTCBTC peaked days after $LTC halved in 2015. It proceed to selloff leading up to and following the $BTC halving. I think we will see similar price action in 19-20. If so then #LTCBTC would return to the top of the channel over the next couple months before retesting ~0.011.
53
10:59 - 8 thg 6, 2019
Xem các Tweet khác của Financial Survivalism
Theo nhà phân tích Financial Survivalism, Litecoin vẫn còn rất nhiều dư địa để tăng trưởng. Ông lưu ý rằng trước halving lần đầu, xảy ra vào giữa năm 2015, LTC đã tăng mạnh ngược đà Bitcoin, cuối cùng tìm thấy một đỉnh parabol ngay sau sự kiện. Tuy nhiên, sau sự kiện này, Litecoin đã tụt lại so với Bitcoin.
Nếu xu hướng lịch sử giữ vững trong khoảng thời gian này, LTC sẽ tiếp tục tăng so với BTC – có khả năng tăng gấp đôi từ 0,0148, hiện tại là khoảng 0,0270 – trong ba tháng tới. Nếu Bitcoin tiếp tục cao hơn từ đây, LTC có thể lên tới 250 đô la.
Bloomberg đã báo cáo rằng trong một cuộc thăm dò gần đây trên Twitter, 61% trong số 2.500 user tin rằng BTC sẽ tăng mạnh trước và sau khi halving vào tháng 5 năm 2020.
LTC có thể sụp đổ từ đây
Ngược lại với những nhận định lạc quan phía trên, theo một số nhà phân tích, Litecoin có thể sẵn sàng sụp đổ thay vì “go to the moon”. Trong một tweet gần đây, Josh Olszewicz của Brave New Coin đã gợi ý rằng tài sản này trong một ngày nào đó sẽ không còn hot nữa.
Xem hình ảnh trên Twitter
D8rSBfnWkAAv3DC?format=jpg&name=small

p4O5yq6u_normal.jpg

Josh Olszewicz@CarpeNoctom

1D $LTC

RW + bear div

death looking imminent

support near 55-70

article on Chikun coming later this week for @bravenewcoin
49
12:21 - 10 thg 6, 2019
27 người đang nói chuyện về điều này
Thông tin và quyền riêng tư Quảng cáo Twitter

Ông giải thích rằng LTC hiện đang ở giữa một mức tăng, và cũng đã thấy sự phân kỳ giảm giá trong Chỉ số sức mạnh tương đối của nó (RSI). Điều này, cùng với việc LTC đã đi xa hơn mức trung bình di chuyển theo cấp số nhân 200 ngày của nó khiến Olszewicz tin rằng một sự sụp đổ xuống $ 55- $ 70, có thể sắp xảy ra.
Olszewicz không phải là người đầu tiên đưa ra nhận định này. Nunya Bizniz, một nhà phân tích và bình luận gần đây đã tuyên bố rằng Litecoin đang trên bờ vực sụp đổ.
Xem hình ảnh trên Twitter
D8edBMeWwAExEwC?format=jpg&name=small

Xem các Tweet khác của Nunya Bizniz
Thông tin và quyền riêng tư Quảng cáo Twitter

Như được thấy dưới đây, LTC đã tăng 700% từ đáy lên đến đỉnh trong suốt 176 ngày vào năm 2015, sau đó sụp đổ xuống một nửa. Điều kỳ lạ là, Litecoin vừa hoàn thành mô hình chính xác đó, tăng 700% trong sáu tháng qua. Xu hướng lịch sử nếu được lặp lại, Litecoin có thể giảm xuống hai con số trong những tháng tới
.SN_Nour
Tạp Chí Bitcoin
 

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